Markets have become more optimistic ahead of the December 9 EU summit. U.S. treasury secretary Tim Geithner has said he expects European officials to succeed in resolving the region’s debt crisis.
The U.S.’s anemic growth is expected to spill into the next year and fears of a Chinese soft landing have not receded.
The latest Bloomberg Global Poll conducted by Selzer & Co, polled 1,097 investors, analysts and traders who are also Bloomberg terminal subscribers and found that 33% expect the global economy to fall into a recession the next year.
They also identified bonds as the asset class that will offer the worst returns over the next year, with 40% expecting to reduce holdings in the first half of 2012.
Here is what investors think about the U.S. economy, and the global economy:
- 54% of those polled think the global economy is deteriorating, down from 58% in September.
- 38% think the U.S. economy is improving, while 25% say its getting worse. The rest say the economy is stable.
- Two in five respondents think the U.S. is among the markets that will perform best over the next year. Less than 25% of investors expect the U.S. to relapse into a recession within the next year.
- 33% of investors are increasing their holdings of the U.S. dollar, while 14% are reducing them.
Here is what investors think of Europe:
- Asian investors are the least optimistic on Europe, with nearly 60% saying European markets will be the worst performing markets in 2012. 43% of Europeans think European markets should be avoided.
- 82% of all respondents expect the eurozone to contract, up from 79% in September.
- 51% of European respondents think euro are disintegration is not a possibility, compared with 32% of U.S. respondents and 38% of Asian respondents.
- Only 3% of respondents think boosting the EFSF will end contagion. 44% think a fiscal union is the only way to end the crisis. 16% of respondents endorse more austerity.
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